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Prediction market odds, live
Prediction market odds are a probability quoted as money: a contract trading at 0.20 costs twenty cents and pays one dollar if the answer turns out to be yes, so the market is pricing that outcome at roughly twenty percent.
The most traded open questions on Polymarket, read when you opened this page. Prices are shown as the market states them, in cents on the dollar.
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| Question | Yes | Traded |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 16% | $72,897,769 |
| Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | <1% | $27,911,121 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 3% | $24,460,648 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 14% | $20,984,837 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | 86% | $18,494,293 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | 19% | $14,446,983 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 7% | $13,825,872 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | 6% | $10,217,398 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 91% | $8,608,772 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | 4% | $8,438,585 |
The ten most traded open questions on Polymarket, read at 2026-10-08 22:25 UTC through our own keyless relay and refreshed at most every five minutes. Yes is the current price of a contract paying one dollar if the answer is yes. Traded is volume over the life of the question, not today.
Reading a price as a probability
Every contract settles at one dollar or at nothing. If people are willing to pay twenty cents for it, they are collectively saying the event has about a one in five chance. That is the whole translation, and it is what makes these markets readable at a glance in a way that odds formats rarely are.
The two sides add up to about one dollar
Yes and no are both tradable, and their prices sum to roughly a dollar because holding both guarantees exactly a dollar at settlement. The small amount by which they exceed a dollar is the cost of the spread. When the sum drifts noticeably away from one, the book is thin rather than mispriced, and the gap usually closes as soon as anybody arrives to take it.
Volume and liquidity are different questions
Volume is how much has traded over the life of the question, so a market can show an enormous number and still be quiet today. Liquidity is what is resting in the book right now, and it is what decides whether you can get a position on at the price you are looking at. A high volume market with thin liquidity is a crowd that has already left.
What a price does not tell you
It does not tell you who is trading, and a single large participant moves a small market a long way. It does not price the wording of the question, which is where most disputes live: an outcome can happen in spirit and still settle no. And it carries resolution risk, because someone has to decide the answer, and that decision is part of what you are buying.
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HyperBoard: Crypto Market Dashboard
prices, funding rates, open interest and liquidity across crypto perpetual markets, live.
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Three working apps that read this kind of market. Open one, change it, and publish your own.
- OddsBoard
the whole prediction market board, Polymarket and Kalshi together, as a grid, a heatmap and a leaderboard.
- HyperViz
the same idea applied to crypto perps, with liquidity, liquidation zones and a funding radar.
- HyperBoard: Crypto Market Dashboard
prices, funding rates, open interest and liquidity across crypto perpetual markets, live.
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